Saturday, October 25, 2008

Cabinet door hinge

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Evidently, Patten thinks the same is true of most of the opinions aired in the book. At times - in his analysis of the Iraq war, for example - he is plainly right. What is questionable is his assumption that the thinking that led to the Iraq war will prove to be an aberration.
Patten begins What Next? by citing approvingly Margaret Thatcher's remark at her last cabinet meeting, 'It's a funny old world.' By the end of the book, however, it is clear that he sees the past eight years as a blip on the screen of history. Along with liberals across the world, he is confident that, with a new incumbent in the White House, what could be considered normal service will be resumed. 'To live in a better world,' he writes, 'requires a more democratic citizenry, a sentiment inherent in Senator Obama's presidential campaign oratory.' But what if the debacle on Wall Street leaves America fear-ridden, resentful and more stridently fundamentalist - whoever becomes president? It looks as if the future of the world is going to be funnier than Patten imagines.
John Gray's Black Mass: Apocalyptic Religion and the Death of Utopia is published by Penguin.



Mr Milton also described loan-to-deposit ratios for the banking system as ''relatively moderate'' at 90% although smaller banks with higher ratios and weaker funding structures through a reliance on large depositors are a concern in the current volatile market.
Mr Milton said the Deposit Insurance Act should help maintain stability. Depositors will continue to be fully guaranteed by the state until August 2009. Coverage will then decline to one million baht per depositor per bank by August 2012.
The cabinet on Tuesday is expected to approve a delay in the limited deposit programme and continue full state guarantees for another three years.
But while bank performance in 2008 is expected to stay strong, thanks to high loan growth in the first half, pressure would increase in 2009.
''Thai banks are likely to face renewed asset quality and margin pressures due to higher funding costs and declining loan growth in 2009,'' said Mr Milton.
But he said Thailand's top banks with capital funds averaging 15% of risk assets and average net interest margins of 3.5% compared favourably with regional competitors and should ''provide some buffer in absorbing an economic slowdown.''
''But if political troubles continue or the economy slows sharply, this could impact the banks' rating outlooks in 2009,'' he said, adding that more diversified banks such as Bangkok Bank, Siam Commercial Bank and Kasikornbank should be most resilient.



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